LaSalle Street Journal

Economic Calendar
Week of March 15, 2026

Key Interest Rates

FRED API | Cached: Mar 18, 2026 1:00am ET

CME Term SOFR Rates are forward-looking interest rates based SOFR, which is a benchmark interest rate for loans and derivatives.  🔒 Link...

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

FRED API | Cached: Mar 18, 2026 1:00am ET

DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, 03/07/26

Released ~ March 12, 2026

Seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims decreased 1,000 to 213,000 in the week ending March 7, below consensus forecasts of 215,000. The prior period was revised higher by 1,000 to 214,000. The four-week average dropped 4,000 to 212,000, underscoring sustained labor market resilience with no standout national drivers.

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CB New Housing Starts, January 2026

Released ~ March 12, 2026

Housing starts rose 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.487 million in January, exceeding consensus forecasts of 1.35 million and the revised December estimate of 1.387 million. Multifamily construction drove the increase, offsetting single-family weakness; permits fell 5.4% to 1.376 million SAAR.

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BLS Consumer Price Index, February 2026

Released ~ March 11, 2026

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent month-over-month (seasonally adjusted) in February 2026, matching consensus forecasts and up from 0.2 percent prior. The index increased 2.4 percent year-over-year, unchanged from January, with shelter as the primary driver.

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BLS Average Hourly Earnings, February 2026

Released March 11, 2026

Average Hourly Earnings for private nonfarm payroll employees rose 0.4% to $37.32 in February, up $0.15 from January's $37.17 (no prior revisions noted). The gain exceeded the 0.3% CPI-U increase, aiding a 0.2% real earnings rise amid steady inflation pressures.

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BLS Real Earnings Summary, February 2026

By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 11, 2026

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics Real Earnings Summary for February 2026 indicates real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% over the month and 1.4% over the year, seasonally adjusted. Real average weekly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. The monthly gain stemmed from a 0.4% rise in nominal average hourly earnings exceeding a 0.3% increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), with no change in the average workweek. No consensus forecast was detailed in the release, and no revisions to prior data were reported.

For production and nonsupervisory employees, real hourly earnings were unchanged over the month but up 1.4% annually, while real weekly earnings were flat monthly yet increased 2.0% yearly, supported by a 0.6% annual hours gain. The report highlights steady, if modest, real wage progress amid restrained inflation.

This tone suggests cautious optimism for sustained consumer spending power. Credit professionals should consider bolstering surveillance on wage-inflation dynamics to inform risk models in consumer credit segments, while viewing the data as supportive of stable household balance sheets in the short run.

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NAR Existing-Home Sale, February

Released ~ March 10, 2026

Existing-home sales rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.09 million units in February, beating consensus of 3.88 million. January's figure was revised up to 4.02 million from 3.91 million. Lower mortgage rates drove the gain amid slowly improving inventory.

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CB Advance Retail Sales, January 2026

Released ~ March 6, 2026

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales fell 0.2% to $733.5 billion in January 2026, beating consensus forecasts for a 0.3% decline. December's reading was unrevised at flat. Declines in motor vehicles and gasoline stations were offset by gains in nonstore retailers.

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BLS Unemployment Rate, February 2026

Released ~ March 6, 2026

The U-3 unemployment rate (the total unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force) held at 4.4 percent in February 2026, changing little from the prior month, with the number of unemployed at 7.6 million. January data were revised for annual population adjustments. Part-time workers for economic reasons fell by 477,000.

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BLS Nonfarm Payroll Employment, February 2026

Released ~ March 6, 2026

Nonfarm payroll employment declined 92,000 in February, missing consensus forecasts of 50,000. January was revised down 4,000 to +126,000; December down 65,000 to -17,000. The drop was driven by strike-related health care losses, with information and federal government also declining.

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BLS Average Hourly Earnings, February 2026

Released March 6, 2026

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 15 cents (+0.4%) to $37.32 in February, matching expectations of +0.3% to +0.4%; over the year, earnings grew 3.8%. No revisions to January data noted.

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ISM Services PMI, February 2026

By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 4, 2026

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a key gauge of non-manufacturing sector health, registered 56.1 percent in February 2026. This exceeded the consensus forecast of 53.5 percent and represented a 2.3-percentage-point increase from January’s 53.8 percent, marking the strongest reading since July 2022 and the 20th straight month of expansion.

Accelerating business activity to 59.9 percent and new orders to 58.6 percent drove the uptick, while employment expanded to 51.8 percent for the third consecutive month. All 10 subindexes entered expansion territory for the first time since March 2021, with prices easing slightly to 63.0 percent amid stable supply chains despite ongoing tariff adaptation.

The report strikes an optimistic tone, highlighting a heating services sector and broad-based strength fueled by AI data-center demand, consumer spending, and improved supply-chain resilience.

For credit professionals, this signals strengthening debtor liquidity across most services industries. Optimism is warranted: review and selectively expand credit lines for clients in high-growth sectors such as finance & insurance, professional services, and healthcare. Maintain tighter monitoring on retail trade, which contracted. Actionable step – update your risk dashboards with these PMI trends today to forecast improved collections through Q2 2026.

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S&P Global Services PMI, February 2026

By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 4, 2026

The S&P Global U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered 51.7 in February 2026, down from 52.7 the prior month and revised lower from the flash estimate of 52.3. This marked the weakest services sector expansion since April 2025, although growth continued for the 37th consecutive month above the 50 expansion threshold.

New order inflows moderated amid uncertainties surrounding tariffs and government policies, further pressured by adverse weather, with new export business contracting. Backlogs accumulated at a steeper rate while employment rose only fractionally amid hiring constraints and cost-cutting. Input costs surged due to labor expenses and tariffs, spurring accelerated output pricing.

Business confidence ticked higher from January but remained below long-run trends. Credit professionals should intensify review of services-exposed borrowers for margin compression and demand softness risks, maintaining cautious optimism given sustained expansion and potential policy supports while watching closely for March rebound indicators.

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ADP National Employment Report, February 2026

By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 4, 2026

U.S. private sector employment rose by 63,000 jobs in February 2026 per the ADP National Employment Report, released March 4 and beating consensus estimates of 50,000. This marks the best performance since July 2025, up sharply from January’s downwardly revised 11,000 gain.

Driving factors included robust additions in construction (+19,000) and education and health services (+58,000), though professional and business services contracted by 30,000 and manufacturing by 5,000, indicating narrow breadth.

Wage growth for job-stayers held at 4.5 percent year-over-year, with job-changers seeing a record-low pay premium.

The tone reflects cautious optimism amid sectoral imbalances. Credit professionals may find reassurance in overall hiring resilience but should tighten monitoring of credit lines in professional services and manufacturing. Actionable step: Update risk assessments ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls data, favoring diversified portfolios leaning toward healthcare and construction exposures.

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S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, February 2026

By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 2, 2026

S&P Global’s US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—a diffusion index where readings above 50 signal expansion—stood at 51.6 in February 2026. This marked a decline from 52.4 in January and the weakest pace of growth in seven months, though the seventh straight month of expansion.

Softer rises in output and new orders, driven by high prices, tariffs and adverse weather, weighed on the headline figure. New export orders contracted for an eighth consecutive month—the sharpest drop since April 2025—primarily from tariff effects on sales to Canada. Employment growth was muted, while business confidence strengthened to an eight-month high.

For credit professionals the tone suggests cautious optimism. Continued expansion and firmer forward sentiment point to potential post-weather rebound, yet tariff uncertainty and restrained selling-price inflation signal margin pressure. Actionable steps include tightening credit reviews on export-heavy manufacturers, stress-testing working-capital needs for domestic-market shifts, and monitoring inventory and supplier-delivery trends for early signs of liquidity strain.

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ISM Manufacturing PMI, February 2026

By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 2, 2026

The February 2026 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), registered 52.4 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the unrevised January figure of 52.6 percent. Above the 50-percent benchmark denoting expansion, this represents the second consecutive month of manufacturing growth in 40 months, while signaling continued overall economic expansion for the 16th month.

New orders expanded at 55.8 percent and backlogs grew to 56.6 percent, bolstered by customers’ inventories remaining too low, pointing to production upside. Production held at 53.5 percent, but employment contracted at 48.8 percent and prices jumped sharply to 70.5 percent due to tariffs and metals costs.

Panel commentary reflects guarded optimism amid demand recovery, tempered by cost pressures. Credit professionals should proactively assess tariff exposures in client portfolios, scrutinize supplier lead times, and adjust credit limits for sectors facing margin compression to safeguard against potential delinquencies.

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