Thinking the Unthinkable: A US Rating Downgrade

Immigrants Reconsider Moving to California

Will ObamaCare Trigger the Next Financial Crisis?

PIMCO: Credit Downgrades Coming in Developed World

Fed Reveals Bear Sterns Assets Swallowed in Rescue

Construction Spending Falls to 8-Yr Low

Oil Hits 18-Mth High

India Manufacturing Expands for 12th Consecutive Mth

The CattleBoard: Live Cattle & Cutter Cow Cutout Move Higher

Chart: April Feeder Cattle Set New Highs, Remain On Fire

April feeder cattle continued its climb by setting new highs today settling the day at $110.65

This morning’s crop report provided plenty of support for bulls trading in the feeder cattle pit.

Cattleman Wants Federal Action Involved In Production

A livestock producer writes to the Huffington Post explaining how he’s
seen his bottom line decrease over the past 30 years and what the
government can do to help turn things around.

CME Livestock Review: Mixed Hogs On End-Of-Quarter Positioning

Pit-traded Chicago Mercantile Exchange hogs ended mixed Wednesday after
market participants settled their business affairs on the last trading
day for the quarter.

CBOT Corn Review: Lower On USDA Report; Hits 2010 Low

Chicago Board of Trade corn ended lower as a bearish government report,
end-of-month fund-selling and technical pressure sent the market to its
lowest prices of 2010.

ADM Apologizes For Noisy Plant

Agricultural processor Archer Daniels Midland Co. is apologizing to Cedar Rapids residents for a humming noise coming from a plant that may have aroused some of them from their sleep.

MU Thompson Farm Links Labs, State’s Beef Farms

University of Missouri animal scientists test their laboratory research
at the MU Thompson Farm before offering the results to Missouri farmers.

OIL FUTURES: Crude Ends At 17-Month High, Boosted By Weak Dollar

Crude futures ended at a 17-month high Wednesday, as rising gasoline inventories failed to stop the oil market’s latest surge.

US GAS: Futures End Lower On Supplies, Weather View

Natural gas futures finished lower after a day of volatile trading
Wednesday, as mild weather and robust production drove prices down
while bargain-buying placed upward pressure on the market.

DHI 202 Includes A New Genetic Profile Of Service Sires

In January of 2009, USDA released the first official genetic
evaluations that included genomic information. In the months since,
many dairy farmers have bred substantial numbers of cows in their herds
to AI young bulls with high genetic evaluations.

Angus News: Selection Made Simple In The Midwest

Iowa Angus breeder Doug Rueber uses DNA information to target consistent, quality beef.

Bull Management

March and April is the time many cow-calf producers purchase new bulls.
Managing these young bulls between now and the beginning of the
breeding season is critical to their longevity in your herd. Chris
Zumbrunnen, MU Extension livestock specialist, wrote an article on bull
management.

Recent Changes To U.S. Refinery Capacity

The previous edition of This Week In Petroleum reported negative
earnings for major refiners during the fourth quarter of 2009,
reflecting declining petroleum product demand and a weak economy over
the past 18 months.

U.S. Average Gasoline & Diesel Prices Slip

For the first time in six weeks, the U.S. average price for regular
gasoline fell, dropping two cents to $2.80 per gallon, $0.75 above last
year at this time.

USMEF: U.S. Beef Imaging Campaign In Korea Getting Results

The U.S. beef industry imaging campaign launched late last year is finding a receptive audience among consumers and retailers in South Korea, helping to improve perceptions of our products while leading to increased sales.

Guinea Pigs Are Problem Solvers, But Who Cares?

Wild guinea pigs and domesticated “dumbed down” guinea pigs are equally capable of solving and navigating a water maze.

Wow, isn’t that hot news? Why do I care, or why should you care?

Polioencephalomalacia (PEM Or Polio) Associated With Feeding Corn Gluten

Corn gluten is very commonly used as a feed co-product in Virginia.
Corn gluten feed is a co-product of the production of high fructose
corn syrup. The corn syrup is removed by a wet milling process. Wet
milling separates the corn kernel into starch, oil, protein, and bran.

Pasture Management: It’s Brush Control For The Long Term

Ranchers generally expect renovationstyle brush control to last them for more But 26 years? Without follow-up treatments? It’s possible on West Texas brush populations of creosotebush and tarbush.

Challenges Linger As Japan Accepts Beef From U.S.

Food Manufacturing reports Tom Vilsack’s comments Tuesday on the
difficulty he’ll face in his continued efforts to persuade Japan to
fully reopen its beef market to the U.S.

Kansas Farmers Plan Biggest Soybean Planting Ever

Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service says Kansas farmers plan to plant their biggest corn crop since 1936. Growers also are planning to put in the largest soybean planted acreage in state history.

Calorie Labeling Could Lead To Healthier Fast Food

Will a national requirement for chain restaurants to post calorie counts sound the death knell for bacon cheeseburgers and double chocolate doughnuts?

Forage Focus: Managing Spring Grass Growth & Selective Grazing

For most beef cattle farmers who are managing their pastures in a
rotational grazing system two of the biggest challenges are the flush
of rapid growth that will occur and selective grazing.

In The Cattle Markets: Evaluate Distillers Grains To Lower Cost Of Gain

Seasonally, distillers grains prices tend to be somewhat lower in March than in the surrounding months of January, February, April, and May. Analysis of dried distillers grains plus solubles (DDGS) prices in Nebraska from 2001-2009 shows that this “March dip” has been about 8.5% compared to the highs of the surrounding months. March 2010, however, has seen a bigger drop in ethanol coproduct prices.

Livestock Producers Face Safety Hazards When Manure Pumping

News reports surfaced last fall detailing flash fires and explosions in
livestock buildings while liquid pit manure was being agitated and
pumped. For this reason, University of Illinois Extension staff are
urging caution when agitating and pumping manure from pits beneath
buildings.

California Dairy Energy Efficiency Rebate Program

Cash rebates are available for PG&E dairy customers in northern and central California through the Dairy Energy Efficiency Program.

Cattle Update: Calves From Decades-Old Frozen Semen Born At LSU AgCenter

LSU AgCenter scientists have produced calves from Angus bull semen that has been frozen for more than 40 years.

Some of the calves were sired by semen collected and frozen from bulls in the late 1960s, said Robert Godke, a professor of reproductive physiology at the LSU AgCenter.

DuPont Pledges $200,000 To Improve Communications Effectiveness In Agriculture

DuPont announced a $200,000 grant to a University of Illinois initiative between the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences (ACES) and the College of Media designed to address the growing need for effective communications in the fast-changing world of agriculture, food, feed, fiber, bio-energy and rural development.

Koch Industries Responds To Greenpeace Accusations

The Wichita Business Journal writes Koch Industries is taking a stand
against a report by Greenpeace portraying Koch as a company funding
research to debunk climate change.

Thompson: Forward Cattle Spreading, Hogs Add To Gains

Cattle managed to closer higher with the bulk of the support coming from forward spreading. Near term the market has resistance at $96.27, in which holding below this area could allow a correction of the two day advance that moves back down to $95.20.

Profitability, Better Yields, And New Markets Have Changed Your Cropping Patterns

Have you exercised your “Freedom to Farm?” If so, you are growing more
corn and beans and growing less hay and wheat. That familiar farm
policy of the 1995 Farm Bill provided more latitude to collect farm
program payments on crops without having to observe acreage limits.

Allendale Early Calls: Cattle Futures Mixed, 7,000 Corn Contracts Sold Ahead Of USDA Report

This is right about the time of the year when cattle supplies start their
weekly build from spring into summer. Slaughter levels should remain
low this week then start building. Officially, this is still a tight
market.

CBOT Corn Outlook: Down 3-5c On Bearish USDA Stocks Report

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures are expected to open 3 to 5 cents
lower Wednesday following a bearish quarterly grains stocks estimate
from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

CME Livestock Outlook: Some Hogs To Gain; Cattle Seen Mixed

Positive market fundamentals are seen underpinning some Chicago Mercantile hogs at the start Wednesday.

Video: Illegal Immigrant Likely Killed Arizona Rancher

A prominent southeast Arizona rancher likely was killed by an illegal immigrant, but there’s no evidence to suggest there was any confrontation that led to the shooting, authorities said Monday.

Schwieterman: Feeder Cattle Futures Rebound, Corn Acreage Estimate Comes In Low

Feeder cattle futures rebounded from early weakness to close sharply
higher on Tuesday, boosted by a late day sell off in the corn market.
Corn recovered to close only a couple cents lower on their close but
traded down another couple of cents in overnight trade.

US Cash Cattle Preopen: Packer Bids Do Not Interest Feeders

Bids of $94 per hundredweight for slaughter-ready cattle in the Plains
Tuesday did not draw any takers from cattle feeders, who by Wednesday
morning remain undaunted in their quest for steady to higher prices.

OIL FUTURES: Crude Nears 2010 High, Job Losses Slow Gains

Crude futures approached a new high for the year Wednesday, though a
decline in U.S. payrolls and the impending release of oil inventory
data put the brakes on the rally.

US GAS: Futures Climb On Bargain-Buying

Natural gas futures climbed Wednesday, rising as low prices sparked
bargain-buying and lifted the May contract above the closely-watched
level of $4 a million British thermal units in premarket trading.

Weather Report: Above Normal Temperatures In The East, Cold Front Approaching The Plains

Dry, increasingly warm weather will overspread much of the eastern
U.S., with daytime highs averaging more than 20°F above normal from the
Ohio Valley into the Northeast. On the Plains, a slow moving cold front
will bring occasional showers to the northern half of the region

U.S. Farmers’ Stepped Up Corn Plantings Signal Cheaper Feed

U.S. farmers will increase corn plantings by 2.32 million acres, or 2.7 percent, in 2010, reflecting lower winter wheat seedings and an outlook for improved returns.

Wisconsin Committee Approves Raw Milk Bill

Wisconsin dairy farmers could legally sell raw, unpasteurized milk directly to consumers despite potential health risks under a bill an Assembly committee approved Tuesday.

Missouri Considers Animal Waste Gas As Renewable Energy

The Missouri Senate gave initial approval Tuesday to a bill allowing methane gas produced by animal waste to count toward the state’s renewable energy mandate for electricity providers.

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Lloyds plc & Fauquier Banshares

I like Fauquier Banshares (FBSS) below $15, it only has an ADV of 1000 shares so be careful bidding. Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) at $7.25 is a good buy. My target for both is $25-$28 range.

September 17, 2009

Downgrading CSTR & Potential Cut of COST

Personally I thought the idea of people paying to use coin counting machines was insane. But I was wrong. They put those Coinstar (CSTR) machines in and the people came. There were lines at the supermarket to use it. I couldn’t believe it. But that was then. The “change” must have run out. I haven’t seen one of those machines used in some time. Coinstar does have other machines and an investment in Red Box, but the easy money days of counting change appear to be over.

Costco (COST) saw decreased sales this quarter and missed their numbers, but the real reason I may downgrade — they are starting a trial at two NYC area stores to accept food stamps. Costco, because it charges a membership fee, is like an oasis in the urban jungle. If they start accepting food stamps, it will make it no different than any other large city retailer, think Target or K-Mart.

Mr. Gioia points to the Costco on Vernon Boulevard in Long Island City, Queens, in his district. First opened in 1996, the store is within walking distance for nearly 30,000 residents of three public housing projects: the Queensbridge, Ravenswood and Astoria Homes. “Why Doesn’t Costco Accept Food Stamps?”New York Times, November 11, 2008.

How could anyone not want to shop with them? One of Costco’s reason for never applying to sell food stamps is the $50 yearly fee. Considering the government uses debit cards for the food stamp program so that recipients aren’t shamed, they will probably cover the cost of the membership.

May 28, 2009

Gold

With the advent of commodity based ETFs and their growth in popularity, gold now has the opportunity to be treated in the same manner as a tech stock.

Investment in gold is nearing 50% of all gold consumption, and one third of that is ETFs. The price of gold has been kind to ETFs. And ETFs have been kind to the price of gold. Investors invest in ETFs as the price of gold climbs. With gold showing recent weakness, I believe that we will begin to see investors “profit take” thus forcing ETFs to divest ….. divest …. liquidate ….. cash markets will have to absorb this inventory.

The skew on the puts currently reflects anticipation of increasing implied volatility. If the spot price continues breaking through levels of support look for an increase in implied volatility in gold ETF put options across all months.

March 4, 2009

United Bankshares Inc.

Just buy it. UBSI @ $15.32
CEO said forget the TARP funds.
CEO is a West Virginian who just bought more stock than he makes in a year.

February 19, 2009

Corns and Beans

Long 9 Sep Corn @ 377¼
vs.
Short 4 Sep Beans @ 860¾

February 18, 2009

MS vs. GS ~ the spread

Long 5 MS @ $20.00
Short 1 GS @ $80.00
Taken off now results in a net of $23.25 in the cash register. Cha-ching.

January 12, 2009

Fairfax Financial (FFH)

Price Target: $220

Position closed March 5, 2009: $220.00

January 7, 2009

Time to Buy

It’s always time to buy something, but what (is it time to buy now)?

Here’s what I like:

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) $37.35 – - 39¢ quarterly dividend
Equitable Resources Inc. (EQT) $32.20 – - 22¢ quarterly dividend
Olin Corp. (OLN) $16.95 – - 20¢ quarterly dividend

And here’s one I love:

BP Plc. (BP) $45.25 – - 84¢ quarterly dividend (this is almost a 7.5% dividend folks)

All have healthy dividends, strong stable balance sheets, and room for growth.

December 30, 2008

The Spread

Morgan Stanley: $16.00
Goldman Sachs: $73.00

The spread we bought for a credit of $3.25 is now at $7.00

November 10, 2008

The Art of the Spread – MS vs. GS

Long 5 shares of Morgan Stanley(MS) @ $26.25
vs.
Short 1 share of Goldman Sachs(GS) @ $134.50
Net cost: – $3.25
Can’t sell stock? Buy a deep put or sell a deep call for the GS leg.

September 25, 2008

Upgrades / Downgrades

Coca-Cola (KO) – Sell ($53.39)
Chesapeke Energy (CHK) – Buy ($38.57)
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Buy ($33.57)
Joy Global (JOYG) – Buy ($51.55)
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Sell ($108.00)
Morgan Stanley (MS) – Buy ($22.55)
Fifth Third (FITB) – Buy ($15.96)

I have my own research methods. Don’t ask.

September 19, 2008