Morgan Stanley upgrades TSL to Overweight; YGE to Equalweight. Treasury to unveil PPIP on July 1. Chain store sales up 1.6% vs. prior, up 0.6% YoY – ICSC/Goldman; down 4.3% for week YoY -Redbook. WSJ questions cost effectiveness of Eribitux as 18 week regimen costs $80k and only prolongs life an average of 5 weeks. [...]
Solar Winds (SWI) being initiated by Jefferies, Thomas Weisel, Morgan Stanley, and Ladenburg, at Buy, Outperform, Overweight, and Buy, respectively. DFS upgraded by Keefe Bruyette, target raised to $14. China will boost oil reserves 160% over the next five years; supposedly halts metals stockpiling. BNY says it will be profitable in 2009. Novartis in talks [...]
Inflation is dead long live inflation! We hear about the threat of hyperinflation in the media is this for real, can it happen in the U.S.? Are we hyping up the word inflation, is it an inflationary play of words to grab attention to discuss the threat of hyperinflation? Lets deflate the hype and put inflation where it belongs
at the forefront of your concerns.
Potash Corp guides lower for Q2, all fertilizer stocks taking hit. Indonesia suspends Blackberry sales until RIMM opens local service center. Credit Suisse upgrades UBS. UK extends short-sale rules indefinitely. CMI & DE initiated at Buy by Citigroup; CAT & PCAR at Hold. Hike in price of chlorine will kelp OLN according to Oppenheimer which [...]
Misguided government policies have already dealt vicious body blows to our economy, but that hasnt stopped politicians this week from launching two new kicks to the groin: a national health insurance plan and a carbon emissions regulation system called cap and trade. Even if these plans could achieve their desired ends, which is highly unlikely, I would have hoped Washington would refrain from throwing more monkey wrenches into the economy until it shows some signs of resurgence. The last thing we need right now is to further encumber our economy with higher taxes and additional regulations.
IATA says global air passenger demand is down 9.3% in 2009 thru May. FSLR downgraded by Canaccord Adams. Alcoa upgraded by Citigroup. Coal miners PCX and MEE upgraded by Maquarie. SLM upgraded by JPM. Shipping could face long term glut of ships due to failure to cancel new ship orders by buyers during boom. TRA [...]
The financial system has been discharged from intensive care… what a relief! But the relief we feel at a patients survival usually gives way quickly to new worries. How fast and completely will the patients damaged body parts (banks, auto companies, homebuilders) heal? To the extent the patient is unable to regain his former self, how will he be different? And since, in this instance, the injuries were mostly self-inflicted (through the financial equivalent of excessive alcohol, tobacco, and narcotics), can the recovered patient be deterred from resuming these suicidal activities?
MON beats on net, misses on revs; reaffirms FY09 guidance pointing to low end of expected range. Ag/chem stocks up on MON results despite K+S reducing its 2010 potash market forecast. UCB injects $619 billion into banking system with it’s offering of unlimited one year funds. AIG may be unable to sell advisor unit [...]
Richard Bove says “Bank of America is going back to $35 a share as far as I’m concerned.”
Are you kidding me? This would put pre-dilution of common stock value at somewhere between $50 and $70.
And buying Citigroup now is like buying it in 1990s.
You are killing me Dick.
ECB to offer unlimited one-year notes to stimulate economy. Boeing delays Dreamliner initial flight again. MS estimates lowered by FBR, cite TARP repayment, debt valuation adjustments, and real estate losses. FBR raises target for GS to $160. Asian markets down ~3% overnight. Eurozone PMI slips. Moodys: US credit rating a solid triple A. Steve Jobs [...]
Bunge (BG) target raised to $70 by Credit Suisse. Steve Jobs reported to have had liver transplant. Kaufmann raises estimates for APPL after iPhone launch. Apple says it sold 1 million iPhone 3Gs through June 21st. Goldman Sachs to make record bonus payout after spectacular first half – UK Guardian. CHL says no intention [...]
Apple iPhone 3G goes on sale today. Zurich examining idea of reducing size of some Swiss banks. SEC looking into “dark pools”. ETFC offering: 435mm shares at $1.10. FBR downgrades dry-bulk sector. MSFT added to Goldman’s Conviction Buy list, target $29. Apple and China Unicom close iPhone deal. EU leaders endorse creation of European Systemic [...]
I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are “This Time It’s Different.” If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn’t different. It almost never is. And yet – and yet! – I am going to make the case over the next few weeks that it really is different this time, with only a lonely asterisk as a caveat. What prompts my probable foolishness to tempt the investing gods is the rather large amount of bad analysis based on unreasonable (dare I say lazy or surface?) readings of statistics that is coming from the mainstream investment media and investment types with their built-in bias for bullish analysis. Normally, gentle reader, your humble analyst is a paragon of moderate sensibilities, but I have been pushed over a mental edge and need to restore balance. I anticipate that this topic will take several weeks, as trying to cover it all in one sitting would exhaust us both. It should be fun.
Harry Browne, the former Libertarian Party candidate for president, used to say: the government is great at breaking your leg, handing you a crutch, and saying You see, without me you couldnt walk. That maxim is clearly illustrated by the financial industry regulatory reforms proposed this week by the Obama Administration.
SNB plans intervention in fx markets to prevent further appreciation of Swiss Franc. FDO initiated at Outperform by Cowen. NBC to use MSFT technology to sell individual consumer targeted advertising. China “could buy more US debt. DUK in talks with Areva to build new nuclear reactor in Ohio. BAC has been paying out millions in [...]
I will publish a smaller file version of this as soon as I get it…. sorry it’s so big
Potash stocks trade lower on weak European demand. Swiss government cuts outlook, expects contraction of GDP by 2.7% for 2009; widens stimulus plan. S&P lowers ratings on 22 large to regional sized banks. UBS raises WYNN’s Macau market share estimate. Amtech raises target for AAPL to $175. Norges Bank lowers deposit rate, had been expected [...]
Two letters he wishes everyone to read and pass on. He would like people to write to Judiciary members–list and personal note attached.
Industrial production down 1.1% vs. 1.0% consensus; prior revised down two ticks; capacity utilization drops slightly, misses consensus by a tick. May housing starts 532 vs. 485 consensus; April revised down a few k; building permits 10k over consensus. April housing starts 46% of April 2008, and 31% of April 2007. Core PPI down 0.1% [...]
AT&T stores reportedly sold out of iPhone 3G pre-order stocks. Dollar rallies on comments by Russian finance minister. Lazard raises target on SPWRA to $40, YGE to $20, and SOL to $7; downgrades JASO to Hold, notes it is trading at a premium to other Asian ADRs. Banks don’t want TARP warrants valued at market. [...]
Commodities and commodity stocks showing weakness as dollar shows strength, and with oil down solar follows. China industrial output up 8.9% vs. 7.8%. Japan confident with US Treasury purchases despite recent record sales. Investment management firms eyeing problem loans as make-up for REIT-like entities. ANR upgraded to Buy at Goldman. China to US: Rein in [...]
Crony capitalism is a term often applied to foreign nations where government interference circumvents market forces. The practice is widely associated with tin-pot dictators and second-rate economies. In such a system, support for the ruling regime is the best and only path to economic success. Who you know supersedes what you know, and favoritism trumps the rule of law. Unfortunately, this weeks events demonstrate that the phrase now more aptly describes our own country.
Stern Agee initiates coverage of fertilizer stocks; rates TRA($35 target), POT($150), & AGU($62) at Buy; CF($95) & MOS ($63) at Neutral. Unemployment initial claims 601k vs. 615k consensus, continuing claims rise to record 6.81 million. 10 Year Treasuries tap 4.004%. Volker – US likely to see growth in late 09, strong recovery unlikely, unemployment will [...]
MBA mortgage applications down 7.2%. HD raises 2009 EPS guidance, re-affirms revenue estimates; says worst of housing correction is over. BHP cuts coking coal price 58%. GOOG’s settlement with publishers over online books being examined. FSLR downgraded at Soleil on oversupply concerns, upgraded at Amtech with a target of $250. NYT’s Boston Globe on the [...]
US chain store sales up 0.2% vs. down 0.6% in prior week, down 0.8% YoY – ICSC/Goodman; down 4.4% YoY – Redbook. Susquehanna raises AAPL target to $170, Credit Suisse raises target to $165, and Kaufmann raises to $176. CSC receives $200mm contract US intelligence agency. LCD panel manufacturers seeing increased demand. STP to build [...]
You will LOVE this one!
Citigroup may sell stake in HDB. FBR expects solar inventories to hamper Q2 earnings. US may have the coal reserved believed, but Energy Information Administration says most can not be profitably mined. JBL to manufacture solar panels in Mexico for SPWRA. ITRI upgraded by JPMorgan. US to propose compensation regulation of federal bailout banks. PALM’s [...]
Personally I don’t think Garmin can survive on it’s own. For over a year now I have been saying Garmin should be buying Lojack (LOJN) Sirius XM (XMSR). The products are complimentary and could easily be bundled into one component for factory installation.
FDIC wants C management out. AAPL to launch less expensive iPhone. Steve [...]
Marty’s answer to the 3rd Circuit
This is one of Marty’s answers to the 3rd Circuit after he received a “3 PAGE” response to his SEC documents
This week, Team Obama took their dog and pony show on the road. Treasury Secretary Geithner went to China, Fed Chairman Bernanke to Capitol Hill, and the President himself began a Mideast tour in Saudi Arabia. This full-court press is not coincidental, and comes just as the federal government has begun unloading trillions of dollars in new Treasury obligations. The coordinated charm offensive is meant to assure the world-at-large that the United States can repay these obligations without destroying the dollar.
Goldman raises it’s price target on oil to $85. CORS hire BAC to aid in sale. UK home prices up 2.6% in April. Oppenheimer target for AAPL raised to $160. RTP may scrap ACH deal. NYX downgraded by BMO Capital Markets to Underperform. COF initiated at Sell by Stern Agee, target $20. Sales for ESLR, [...]
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Mortgage apps down 16.2% vs. down 14.2% prior. JOYG beats, raises guidance for 2009. Stern Agee upgraded JOYG and BUCY based on JOYG’s results for quarter. Eurozone GDP down 4.8% in Q1, slightly more than was estimated. Australia Q1 GDP up 0.4% vs. 0.1% estimate. Spot solar cell price falls to $1.40/watt, price has fallen [...]
MS announces $2.2 billion offering; 80.2 million shares of common at $27.44. C is halting some severance payments. CHL removed from Conviction Buy List by Goldman. NoKo getting ready to launch a mid-range missile. Eurozone unemployment hits 9.2%. ISRG upped to Buy by Needham, target $180. Sterling up over 20% over US$ as it hits [...]
CSTR plans to rent video games through Redbox. FBR believes FSLR will feel impact if Ecostream files for bankruptcy as it is 6-8% of FSLR’s sales. GOOG to sell e-books. WSJ reports Fed’s market activity to keep interest rates low is at a loss of $2500 per borrower. KKR posts $1.2 billion loss. C & [...]
I like Fauquier Banshares (FBSS) below $15, it only has an ADV of 1000 shares so be careful bidding. Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) at $7.25 is a good buy. My target for both is $25-$28 range.
September 17, 2009Personally I thought the idea of people paying to use coin counting machines was insane. But I was wrong. They put those Coinstar (CSTR) machines in and the people came. There were lines at the supermarket to use it. I couldn’t believe it. But that was then. The “change” must have run out. I haven’t seen one of those machines used in some time. Coinstar does have other machines and an investment in Red Box, but the easy money days of counting change appear to be over.
Costco (COST) saw decreased sales this quarter and missed their numbers, but the real reason I may downgrade — they are starting a trial at two NYC area stores to accept food stamps. Costco, because it charges a membership fee, is like an oasis in the urban jungle. If they start accepting food stamps, it will make it no different than any other large city retailer, think Target or K-Mart.
Mr. Gioia points to the Costco on Vernon Boulevard in Long Island City, Queens, in his district. First opened in 1996, the store is within walking distance for nearly 30,000 residents of three public housing projects: the Queensbridge, Ravenswood and Astoria Homes. “Why Doesn’t Costco Accept Food Stamps?”New York Times, November 11, 2008.
How could anyone not want to shop with them? One of Costco’s reason for never applying to sell food stamps is the $50 yearly fee. Considering the government uses debit cards for the food stamp program so that recipients aren’t shamed, they will probably cover the cost of the membership.
May 28, 2009With the advent of commodity based ETFs and their growth in popularity, gold now has the opportunity to be treated in the same manner as a tech stock.
Investment in gold is nearing 50% of all gold consumption, and one third of that is ETFs. The price of gold has been kind to ETFs. And ETFs have been kind to the price of gold. Investors invest in ETFs as the price of gold climbs. With gold showing recent weakness, I believe that we will begin to see investors “profit take” thus forcing ETFs to divest ….. divest …. liquidate ….. cash markets will have to absorb this inventory.
The skew on the puts currently reflects anticipation of increasing implied volatility. If the spot price continues breaking through levels of support look for an increase in implied volatility in gold ETF put options across all months.
March 4, 2009Just buy it. UBSI @ $15.32
CEO said forget the TARP funds.
CEO is a West Virginian who just bought more stock than he makes in a year.
Long 9 Sep Corn @ 377¼
vs.
Short 4 Sep Beans @ 860¾
Long 5 MS @ $20.00
Short 1 GS @ $80.00
Taken off now results in a net of $23.25 in the cash register. Cha-ching.
Price Target: $220
Position closed March 5, 2009: $220.00
January 7, 2009It’s always time to buy something, but what (is it time to buy now)?
Here’s what I like:
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) $37.35 – - 39¢ quarterly dividend
Equitable Resources Inc. (EQT) $32.20 – - 22¢ quarterly dividend
Olin Corp. (OLN) $16.95 – - 20¢ quarterly dividend
And here’s one I love:
BP Plc. (BP) $45.25 – - 84¢ quarterly dividend (this is almost a 7.5% dividend folks)
All have healthy dividends, strong stable balance sheets, and room for growth.
December 30, 2008Morgan Stanley: $16.00
Goldman Sachs: $73.00
The spread we bought for a credit of $3.25 is now at $7.00
November 10, 2008Long 5 shares of Morgan Stanley(MS) @ $26.25
vs.
Short 1 share of Goldman Sachs(GS) @ $134.50
Net cost: – $3.25
Can’t sell stock? Buy a deep put or sell a deep call for the GS leg.
Coca-Cola (KO) – Sell ($53.39)
Chesapeke Energy (CHK) – Buy ($38.57)
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Buy ($33.57)
Joy Global (JOYG) – Buy ($51.55)
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Sell ($108.00)
Morgan Stanley (MS) – Buy ($22.55)
Fifth Third (FITB) – Buy ($15.96)
I have my own research methods. Don’t ask.
September 19, 2008