The markets are not gloomy. Earnings are not all and all gloomy. Apple and Google are not the only companies in America. For most of us, the products with the Apple name are consumer discretionaries — of all the people who’s life requires a laptop computer, very few actually need a Mac. [...]
One has to wonder if Refco would still exist if Phillip R. Bennett had been
able to continue concealing the $430 million in bad debt he had hidden.
Can every company be doing more poorly than it was in Q3 2007?
Or might this current economic climate be the opportunity that allows for
cleaning previously [...]
In theory, leverage is a great thing. Being able to use the same amount of money to control two or three times the amount of assets can boost returns significantly, however when you are leveraged 20X, 50X, or 100X, even the smallest loss can create havoc as all positions rely on the solvency of [...]
Here’s a guy that says he was more invested than anyone in Lehman because he owned 10mm shares.
Question: What do you think it feels like to have to sit there and watch $1 billion of stock turn into worthless paper because you know that if you sell just one share, you are going to prison?
For $3 billion, Warren Buffet gets 10% per year preferred stock that is redeemable by GE at $3.33 billion.
Plus, he gets warrants for 135 million shares at $22.25
The average person gets to buy GE at $22.25
I like Fauquier Banshares (FBSS) below $15, it only has an ADV of 1000 shares so be careful bidding. Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) at $7.25 is a good buy. My target for both is $25-$28 range.
September 17, 2009Personally I thought the idea of people paying to use coin counting machines was insane. But I was wrong. They put those Coinstar (CSTR) machines in and the people came. There were lines at the supermarket to use it. I couldn’t believe it. But that was then. The “change” must have run out. I haven’t seen one of those machines used in some time. Coinstar does have other machines and an investment in Red Box, but the easy money days of counting change appear to be over.
Costco (COST) saw decreased sales this quarter and missed their numbers, but the real reason I may downgrade — they are starting a trial at two NYC area stores to accept food stamps. Costco, because it charges a membership fee, is like an oasis in the urban jungle. If they start accepting food stamps, it will make it no different than any other large city retailer, think Target or K-Mart.
Mr. Gioia points to the Costco on Vernon Boulevard in Long Island City, Queens, in his district. First opened in 1996, the store is within walking distance for nearly 30,000 residents of three public housing projects: the Queensbridge, Ravenswood and Astoria Homes. “Why Doesn’t Costco Accept Food Stamps?”New York Times, November 11, 2008.
How could anyone not want to shop with them? One of Costco’s reason for never applying to sell food stamps is the $50 yearly fee. Considering the government uses debit cards for the food stamp program so that recipients aren’t shamed, they will probably cover the cost of the membership.
May 28, 2009With the advent of commodity based ETFs and their growth in popularity, gold now has the opportunity to be treated in the same manner as a tech stock.
Investment in gold is nearing 50% of all gold consumption, and one third of that is ETFs. The price of gold has been kind to ETFs. And ETFs have been kind to the price of gold. Investors invest in ETFs as the price of gold climbs. With gold showing recent weakness, I believe that we will begin to see investors “profit take” thus forcing ETFs to divest ….. divest …. liquidate ….. cash markets will have to absorb this inventory.
The skew on the puts currently reflects anticipation of increasing implied volatility. If the spot price continues breaking through levels of support look for an increase in implied volatility in gold ETF put options across all months.
March 4, 2009Just buy it. UBSI @ $15.32
CEO said forget the TARP funds.
CEO is a West Virginian who just bought more stock than he makes in a year.
Long 9 Sep Corn @ 377¼
vs.
Short 4 Sep Beans @ 860¾
Long 5 MS @ $20.00
Short 1 GS @ $80.00
Taken off now results in a net of $23.25 in the cash register. Cha-ching.
Price Target: $220
Position closed March 5, 2009: $220.00
January 7, 2009It’s always time to buy something, but what (is it time to buy now)?
Here’s what I like:
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) $37.35 – - 39¢ quarterly dividend
Equitable Resources Inc. (EQT) $32.20 – - 22¢ quarterly dividend
Olin Corp. (OLN) $16.95 – - 20¢ quarterly dividend
And here’s one I love:
BP Plc. (BP) $45.25 – - 84¢ quarterly dividend (this is almost a 7.5% dividend folks)
All have healthy dividends, strong stable balance sheets, and room for growth.
December 30, 2008Morgan Stanley: $16.00
Goldman Sachs: $73.00
The spread we bought for a credit of $3.25 is now at $7.00
November 10, 2008Long 5 shares of Morgan Stanley(MS) @ $26.25
vs.
Short 1 share of Goldman Sachs(GS) @ $134.50
Net cost: – $3.25
Can’t sell stock? Buy a deep put or sell a deep call for the GS leg.
Coca-Cola (KO) – Sell ($53.39)
Chesapeke Energy (CHK) – Buy ($38.57)
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Buy ($33.57)
Joy Global (JOYG) – Buy ($51.55)
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Sell ($108.00)
Morgan Stanley (MS) – Buy ($22.55)
Fifth Third (FITB) – Buy ($15.96)
I have my own research methods. Don’t ask.
September 19, 2008