Bearish Outlook for Agricultural Chemical Producers
Factors that will effect change and a move towards sustainable agriculture by farmers and increase the pressure on the agricultural chemical sector.
1) Seed cost.
2) Fertilizer cost.
3) Soil …
Recent Commentary
- Bearish Outlook for Agricultural Chemical Producers
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Martin Armstrong
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Euro Pacific Capital
- Symptoms Don’t Lie
- Germany Under Pressure To Create Money
- Gold Recovers Amidst Uncertainty
- Changing the Conversation
- The Federal Financial Triangle
- Japan Steps into the Void
- Gold in the Crosshairs
- Cypriot Chaos Assists EU Centralization
- The Stockman Backlash
- Flying High on Borrowed Wings
- The Stimulus Trap
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- Spending Patterns Paint Half Truth
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- Messing with the Bull
- Investing In a World of Make Believe
- The Biggest Loser
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- German Gold Claw Back Causes Concern
- France and the UK Could Be the Lynchpins of Europe
- The Trillion Dollar Trick
- Inflation Propaganda Exposed
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- Operation Screw
News from the Wires
- Japan Exports Miss Estimates After Yen Slides to 4-Year Low
- Bernanke Says Premature Tightening Would Endanger Recover
- Dudley Says He Can’t Be Sure If Next QE Move Is ‘Up or Down’
- Bank of Japan Vows Market Steps to Curb Bond Turbulence
- Bank of Korea’s Kim Sees Global Risks From Fed Exit
- Bernanke Expected to Deliver Dovish Message
- Gold Advances on Stimulus Speculation Before Bernanke
- Platinum Buying Quickens as Gold Allure Diminishes: Commodities
- Gold and Silver Rebound after Moody’s Talks Downgrade
- Japan Inc. Averse to Further Yen Drop, Poll Finds
- Are Treasurys Falling Out of Favor With China?
- Japanese Bonds Fall for Second Day After Demand Ebbs at Auction
- WTI Crude Slips From Seven-Week High Before U.S. Inventory Data
- Wall Street Starts Slightly Higher, Eyes on Fed
- Extraordinary Measures Become Standard: US hits Debt Limit Again
- Taxes on Some Wealthy French Top 100 pct of Income: Paper
- Bernanke’s Testimony Critical to Oil Prices
- Exclusive: Japan Panel Warns of Dangers if Debt Not Addressed
- Employers Eye Bare-Bones Health Plans Under New Law
- Taiwan Steps Up Its Currency Moves
- Student Debt Weighs on Overall Economy
- Tepid Profits, Roaring Stocks
- Fred Bergsten Warns of Currency Wars
- Gold’s Dichotomy: Plunges, but Consumers Keep Buying
- Evidence Mounts on Slower U.S. Economic Growth
- BOJ May Seek Ways to Calm Bond Yields, Policy on Hold
- Fed Hawks Call for Retreat from Mortgage Stimulus
- Central Banks Saved World Economy, Now Beware the Fallout: IMF
- Claims for Jobless Benefits Rise Sharply
- Gold Demand in China Surges 20% to Record in First Quarter
- Physical Gold Demand Shines in First Quarter
- Today’s Ugly Data Raises Questions about Strength of U.S. Economy
- Dollar Eases on Downbeat Data, Retreats from 4-1/2 Year High Versus Yen
- Jobless Claims in U.S. Jump to Highest Level in Six Weeks
- Housing Starts in U.S. Fell in April to Five-Month Low
- Walmart Suffers as US Consumers Hold Back
- Private Equity Taps Builders as Foreclosures Vanish
- New York Area Manufacturing Unexpectedly Contracts
- Central Banks Are Repeating Greenspan’s Mistake
- Production Falls as U.S. Feels Global Weakness: Economy
- Change at Sony: Start of Third Leg of Abenomics?
- Yen to Weaken to 120 by Next Year: Economist
- German Economy Barely Expands While France Contracts
- Japan’s Bonds Halt Worst Drop in Decade After BOJ Adds Funding
- ECB Picks Fight With Germany on EU Plan for Failing Banks
- Grind of Euro Crisis Wears Down Support for Union, Poll Finds
- FDIC Closes Banks in North Carolina, Georgia
- Used Gold Supply Heads for ’08 Low as Sellers Balk: Commodities
- ‘We are going to run out of cash’: ‘Detroit is Insolvent’
- In Push to Taper QE3, Plosser Warns on Fed Credibility
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Archive
Lloyds plc & Fauquier Banshares
I like Fauquier Banshares (FBSS) below $15, it only has an ADV of 1000 shares so be careful bidding. Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) at $7.25 is a good buy. My target for both is $25-$28 range.
September 17, 2009Downgrading CSTR & Potential Cut of COST
Personally I thought the idea of people paying to use coin counting machines was insane. But I was wrong. They put those Coinstar (CSTR) machines in and the people came. There were lines at the supermarket to use it. I couldn’t believe it. But that was then. The “change” must have run out. I haven’t seen one of those machines used in some time. Coinstar does have other machines and an investment in Red Box, but the easy money days of counting change appear to be over.
Costco (COST) saw decreased sales this quarter and missed their numbers, but the real reason I may downgrade — they are starting a trial at two NYC area stores to accept food stamps. Costco, because it charges a membership fee, is like an oasis in the urban jungle. If they start accepting food stamps, it will make it no different than any other large city retailer, think Target or K-Mart.
Mr. Gioia points to the Costco on Vernon Boulevard in Long Island City, Queens, in his district. First opened in 1996, the store is within walking distance for nearly 30,000 residents of three public housing projects: the Queensbridge, Ravenswood and Astoria Homes. “Why Doesn’t Costco Accept Food Stamps?”New York Times, November 11, 2008.
How could anyone not want to shop with them? One of Costco’s reason for never applying to sell food stamps is the $50 yearly fee. Considering the government uses debit cards for the food stamp program so that recipients aren’t shamed, they will probably cover the cost of the membership.
May 28, 2009Gold
With the advent of commodity based ETFs and their growth in popularity, gold now has the opportunity to be treated in the same manner as a tech stock.
Investment in gold is nearing 50% of all gold consumption, and one third of that is ETFs. The price of gold has been kind to ETFs. And ETFs have been kind to the price of gold. Investors invest in ETFs as the price of gold climbs. With gold showing recent weakness, I believe that we will begin to see investors “profit take” thus forcing ETFs to divest ….. divest …. liquidate ….. cash markets will have to absorb this inventory.
The skew on the puts currently reflects anticipation of increasing implied volatility. If the spot price continues breaking through levels of support look for an increase in implied volatility in gold ETF put options across all months.
March 4, 2009United Bankshares Inc.
Just buy it. UBSI @ $15.32
CEO said forget the TARP funds.
CEO is a West Virginian who just bought more stock than he makes in a year.
Corns and Beans
Long 9 Sep Corn @ 377¼
vs.
Short 4 Sep Beans @ 860¾
MS vs. GS ~ the spread
Long 5 MS @ $20.00
Short 1 GS @ $80.00
Taken off now results in a net of $23.25 in the cash register. Cha-ching.
Fairfax Financial (FFH)
Price Target: $220
Position closed March 5, 2009: $220.00
January 7, 2009Time to Buy
It’s always time to buy something, but what (is it time to buy now)?
Here’s what I like:
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) $37.35 – - 39¢ quarterly dividend
Equitable Resources Inc. (EQT) $32.20 – - 22¢ quarterly dividend
Olin Corp. (OLN) $16.95 – - 20¢ quarterly dividend
And here’s one I love:
BP Plc. (BP) $45.25 – - 84¢ quarterly dividend (this is almost a 7.5% dividend folks)
All have healthy dividends, strong stable balance sheets, and room for growth.
December 30, 2008The Spread
Morgan Stanley: $16.00
Goldman Sachs: $73.00
The spread we bought for a credit of $3.25 is now at $7.00
November 10, 2008The Art of the Spread – MS vs. GS
Long 5 shares of Morgan Stanley(MS) @ $26.25
vs.
Short 1 share of Goldman Sachs(GS) @ $134.50
Net cost: – $3.25
Can’t sell stock? Buy a deep put or sell a deep call for the GS leg.
Upgrades / Downgrades
Coca-Cola (KO) – Sell ($53.39)
Chesapeke Energy (CHK) – Buy ($38.57)
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Buy ($33.57)
Joy Global (JOYG) – Buy ($51.55)
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Sell ($108.00)
Morgan Stanley (MS) – Buy ($22.55)
Fifth Third (FITB) – Buy ($15.96)
I have my own research methods. Don’t ask.
September 19, 2008