Bearish Outlook for Agricultural Chemical Producers
Factors that will effect change and a move towards sustainable agriculture by farmers and increase the pressure on the agricultural chemical sector.
1) Seed cost.
2) Fertilizer cost.
3) Soil …
Recent Commentary
- Bearish Outlook for Agricultural Chemical Producers
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Euro Pacific Capital
- Germany Faces Political Isolation
- Germany’s Mixed Signals
- So Long, US Dollar
- The Golden Rule Reinterpreted
- Austerity Fires Voter Vengeance Against Euro
- Spanish Flu May Send EU to Bed
- Unprecedented Presidential Posturing
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- Fed Flying Blind
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- The Bottom Line #9 – Land of the Rising Debt-to-GDP Ratio
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- In Defense of the 1%
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- President Obama Announces Plan to Boost College Tuitions
- Greeks May Look North
- Herman Cain’s Hidden Nine
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- A Hair Trigger Rally
- Occupied by Government
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- Currency: The Hidden Portfolio Risk
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- Land of the Poor, Home of the Sick
- Germany’s Inner Struggle Stifles EU Action
News from the Wires
- ECB Bars Access to Four Greek Banks
- Record Low Mortgage Rates Have Not Ignited Home Sales
- Fed May Prefer Another Twist To Adding Assets
- Spanish Bad-Loans Ratio Hit 17-Year High In March
- Bond Issuers Headed for ‘Collision With Reality’?
- Banks’ Rising Bad Loans Add to Spanish Troubles
- Fitch Slashes Greek Credit Rating
- Fitch Says Top 29 Banks May Need $556 Billion
- Greece on Brink of Collapse
- US Factory Activity Unexpectedly Contracts in May
- ‘Ex-Patriot Act’ Unveiled for Renouncing Citizenship
- Greek Exit Could Cost Eurozone 100s of Billions of Euros
- Italy’s Banks Shaken as Economic Slump Deepens
- Euro Falls to Four-Month Low as Spain’s Debt Costs Rise
- Spaniards Go Underground to Fight Slump
- Fed Minutes Reflect Wariness About Recovery
- BOJ Failed to Draw Enough Offers in Debt Purchase
- Farmland Values Continue to Surge in U.S. Midwest
- ECB Stops Operations With Some Greek Banks
- Time Is Running Out for Treasury Market Rally
- Stimulus Dollars Fund Studies into Erectile Dysfunction
- Germans Fret about Their Foreign Gold Reserves
- People’s Bank of China Will Cut Banks’s Reserve Ratio
- Greeks Withdraw $894 Million in a Day
- Jerry Brown’s Plea: ‘Please Increase Taxes Temporarily’
- John Snow: ‘Taxmaggedon’ Is a Real Threat
- Italy Economy Contracts Most in Three Years on Recession
- Merkel Tells Greece to Back Cuts or Face Euro Exit
- Faith Fades in Eurozone Firewall
- Resource-Rich Canada Looks to China for Growth
- Workers Lacking Skills Hinder More Factory Gains
- Investment, the Engine of U.S. Prosperity, Is Underrated
- Obama Pushes Billion-Dollar Stimulus Plan
- Greece Will Run Out of Money Soon, Warns Deputy PM
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- Soaking the Rich Isn’t Working in California
- Spain’s Banks Detail New Cost of Property Clean-Up
- Euro Officials Begin to Weigh Greek Exit as Euro Weakens
- A Generation Hobbled by the Soaring Cost of College
- Facebook Co-Founder Gives Up US Citizenship Before IPO
- France’s Hollande: Sarkozy Underplayed Budget Woes
- Number of Women Not in Labor Force Hits All-Time High
- China Halts European Debt Buying on Crisis Concerns
- Banks Prepare for the Return of the Drachma
- Greece Euro-Exit Debate Goes Public
- Italian, German Central Bankers at Odds on ECB Role
- Spain Underplaying Bank Losses Faces Ireland Fate
- EU to Release Most of Aid Tranche to Greece
- 49% of Americans Saving Zilch for Retirement
- Germany: Greece Must Agree to Bailout Or Aid Will Stop
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Archive
Lloyds plc & Fauquier Banshares
I like Fauquier Banshares (FBSS) below $15, it only has an ADV of 1000 shares so be careful bidding. Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) at $7.25 is a good buy. My target for both is $25-$28 range.
September 17, 2009Downgrading CSTR & Potential Cut of COST
Personally I thought the idea of people paying to use coin counting machines was insane. But I was wrong. They put those Coinstar (CSTR) machines in and the people came. There were lines at the supermarket to use it. I couldn’t believe it. But that was then. The “change” must have run out. I haven’t seen one of those machines used in some time. Coinstar does have other machines and an investment in Red Box, but the easy money days of counting change appear to be over.
Costco (COST) saw decreased sales this quarter and missed their numbers, but the real reason I may downgrade — they are starting a trial at two NYC area stores to accept food stamps. Costco, because it charges a membership fee, is like an oasis in the urban jungle. If they start accepting food stamps, it will make it no different than any other large city retailer, think Target or K-Mart.
Mr. Gioia points to the Costco on Vernon Boulevard in Long Island City, Queens, in his district. First opened in 1996, the store is within walking distance for nearly 30,000 residents of three public housing projects: the Queensbridge, Ravenswood and Astoria Homes. “Why Doesn’t Costco Accept Food Stamps?”New York Times, November 11, 2008.
How could anyone not want to shop with them? One of Costco’s reason for never applying to sell food stamps is the $50 yearly fee. Considering the government uses debit cards for the food stamp program so that recipients aren’t shamed, they will probably cover the cost of the membership.
May 28, 2009Gold
With the advent of commodity based ETFs and their growth in popularity, gold now has the opportunity to be treated in the same manner as a tech stock.
Investment in gold is nearing 50% of all gold consumption, and one third of that is ETFs. The price of gold has been kind to ETFs. And ETFs have been kind to the price of gold. Investors invest in ETFs as the price of gold climbs. With gold showing recent weakness, I believe that we will begin to see investors “profit take” thus forcing ETFs to divest ….. divest …. liquidate ….. cash markets will have to absorb this inventory.
The skew on the puts currently reflects anticipation of increasing implied volatility. If the spot price continues breaking through levels of support look for an increase in implied volatility in gold ETF put options across all months.
March 4, 2009United Bankshares Inc.
Just buy it. UBSI @ $15.32
CEO said forget the TARP funds.
CEO is a West Virginian who just bought more stock than he makes in a year.
Corns and Beans
Long 9 Sep Corn @ 377¼
vs.
Short 4 Sep Beans @ 860¾
MS vs. GS ~ the spread
Long 5 MS @ $20.00
Short 1 GS @ $80.00
Taken off now results in a net of $23.25 in the cash register. Cha-ching.
Fairfax Financial (FFH)
Price Target: $220
Position closed March 5, 2009: $220.00
January 7, 2009Time to Buy
It’s always time to buy something, but what (is it time to buy now)?
Here’s what I like:
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) $37.35 – - 39¢ quarterly dividend
Equitable Resources Inc. (EQT) $32.20 – - 22¢ quarterly dividend
Olin Corp. (OLN) $16.95 – - 20¢ quarterly dividend
And here’s one I love:
BP Plc. (BP) $45.25 – - 84¢ quarterly dividend (this is almost a 7.5% dividend folks)
All have healthy dividends, strong stable balance sheets, and room for growth.
December 30, 2008The Spread
Morgan Stanley: $16.00
Goldman Sachs: $73.00
The spread we bought for a credit of $3.25 is now at $7.00
November 10, 2008The Art of the Spread – MS vs. GS
Long 5 shares of Morgan Stanley(MS) @ $26.25
vs.
Short 1 share of Goldman Sachs(GS) @ $134.50
Net cost: – $3.25
Can’t sell stock? Buy a deep put or sell a deep call for the GS leg.
Upgrades / Downgrades
Coca-Cola (KO) – Sell ($53.39)
Chesapeke Energy (CHK) – Buy ($38.57)
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Buy ($33.57)
Joy Global (JOYG) – Buy ($51.55)
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Sell ($108.00)
Morgan Stanley (MS) – Buy ($22.55)
Fifth Third (FITB) – Buy ($15.96)
I have my own research methods. Don’t ask.
September 19, 2008