Bearish Outlook for Agricultural Chemical Producers
Factors that will effect change and a move towards sustainable agriculture by farmers and increase the pressure on the agricultural chemical sector.
1) Seed cost.
2) Fertilizer cost.
3) Soil …
Recent Commentary
- Bearish Outlook for Agricultural Chemical Producers
- Berkshire Hathaway to Acquire Burlington Northern Santa Fe
- EPS vs. Revenue Explained
- Lemonides Says Dow 15,000, Here We Come
- Richard Bove Needs a New Abacus
- Reading Financial Press Releases – Lesson #1
- Bob Evans (BOBE)
- Credit Card Entitlement
- What are we actually bailing out?
- Maintaining my stance, sell into rallys.
Martin Armstrong
- Creating the Floating Exchange Rate System–The Fate of the Dollar 2010 and Beyond 1/11/10
- Behind The Curtain–The Full Monty
- Behind The Curtain–The Full Monty (Part Three)
- Behind The Curtain–The Full Monty (Part Two)
- Behind The Curtain–The Full Monty (Part One)
- The Decline of the West–Has Western Society Come to an End 12!09
- New Habeas 1 of 4
- Prayer for Relief
- Letter to Supreme Court Doc 2
- Complaint Document 3
- Motion for Appointment of Counsel Doc 4 of 4
- The Dow & the Future–Theory & Myth 12-6-09
- Declaration in Support of Motion for Bail 12-08-09
- The Sum of All Fears–A Great Depression 11-26-09
- Announce and Thank-You 11-30-09
- Emergency Martin Armstrong Needs Our Help Ammended With Additional Contacts
- New Strategy and Additional Numbers to Help Marty
- Example of Fax to Send in Martin Armstrong’s Regards 11-29-09
- Habeas Corpus; Proceeding in Forma Paueris
- Program Statment
- Emergency Martin Armstrong Needs Our Help
- Petition for Certiorari to the Third Circuit
- A Forecast For Real Estate
- Capital Flight–The USA Has Lost it’s Stature as the Financial Capital of the World
- GOLD $5000+ 11/11/09
- Habeas Corpus
- Objective vs. Subjective Analysis 11-1-09
- Letter to Judge Keenan 10-26-09
- Is America On The Verge Of Another Bank War? Should We End The Fed or Goldman Sachs?
- Actual Innocence 10-21-09
- Note of Actual Innocence 10-21-09
- S.E.C. vs Princeton Economics Ltd. 10-15-09
- Christiaan Huygens–The Father of Cycle Theory 10-15-09
- The New Yorker article
- Conspiracy Theories Cloaking Reality 10/5/09
- A Three Year Old With a Pocket Calculator Can Figure Out We Are Screwed! 10/1/09
- Deflation or Inflation–Which is More Likely? 9/29/09
- The Public v Private Waves–and Switzerland’s Fate Along With the Rest of Us 92409
- The Public v Private Waves–and Switzerland’s Fate Along With the Rest of Us 92409
- The Collaspe of the Rule of Law–A Prelude to Disaster! 92009
- The Collaspe of the Rule of Law–A Prelude to Disaster! 92009
- The DNA of the Global Economy 91709
- The 8.6 Year Cycle and the Forces of Mother Nature 91509
- Japan and Its Future After the LDP
- Soaking the Poor for the Benifit of the Rich
- Cycle Theory & the Sixth Dimension Part II 9/09
- Cycle Theory 9/09
- M.A.’s Reply to S.E.C.–in Opposition to Initial Decision 8/30/09
- S.E.C. Answer to Appeal of Initial Decison 7/1/09
- Will Gold Reach 5000+? 8/09
Euro Pacific Capital
- More Government Equals Fewer Jobs
- Rewards Abroad
- Central Banking Doesn’t Work – Just Ask the Fed!
- The Precarious State of Our Union
- Geronimo!
- Why I Hope Gold Falls to $1,000
- Congress Sacks Samoan Economy
- Reflections across the Pond
- Polands Economy Is No Joke
- A Decade of Zero
- Things Fall Apart in Eurozone
- Contrary Signals Clear Way for Crash
- Contrary Signals Clear Way for Crash
- It’s Not Our Fault
- Annus Horribilis
- A Hell of a Decade
- THE DEBT BOMB
- THE DEBT BOMB
- The Eye of the Storm
- Dropping the Bomb on Health Care
- Bernanke Presses His Luck
- The Eye of the Storm
- As Good As Gold
- Natural Gas: The Forgotten Commodity, But Not By Exxon Mobil
- Natural Gas: The Forgotten Commodity, But Not By Exxon Mobil
- Mission Not Accomplished
- The United States Of Wusses
- The Buck Stops Where?
- The United States Of Wusses
- Mirage in the Desert
- Coal, Copper and Ore: More Than Just Mines
- Coal, Copper and Ore: More Than Just Mines
- Hiding Debt Just a Juggling Trick
- Big Players Get Physical with Gold
- Hiding Debt Just a Juggling Trick
- The Truth Behind China’s Currency Peg
- Country at a Crossroads
- Gold: Next Stop $1,400?
- Job Losses Demystified
- A Toxic Cocktail
- Of Assets, Elevators and Velocity
- Of Assets, Elevators and Velocity
- Lousy Jobs, In Such Small Portions
- Boasting of Glory
- Hair of the Dog
- Inflation by Stealth
- When Will Inflation Really Hit Us?
- Dollar Forced to Abdicate
- King Dollar Forced to Abdicate
- Three Models of Future Stock Market Moves
News from the Wires
- Asia Sails Smoothly through Debt Waters
- America’s #1 Creditor Holds the Ultimate Weapon
- Recession Chugs On, Except in Government
- Fed’s “Exit Plan” is Another Gift To Wall St
- Is Gold a Hedge against Inflation?
- Laborers Hammered by Great Recession
- Recession Pushes Youth to the Edge
- Rash of Retirements Pushes Social Security to Brink
- Did US Unemployment Go Down?
- Avg Length of Unemployment Hits New Record
- US Slapped for Biting Hand that Feeds It
- Obama Plans to “Double US Exports” via Market Meddling
- US Gov to Pay 50% of All Health Costs by 2012
- Fed May Restart Mortgage-Backed Securities Program
- Peter Schiff Talks Economy
- Georgia’s Troubled Bank List Grows to 64
- Aussie Central Bank Raises Domestic Growth Outlook
- Treasury expects to hit debt limit in February
- Pfizer sees 2010 China sales up at least 25 pct
- Recession’s job losses likely to rise by nearly 1 million
- Services Expanded Less Than Forecast
- U.S. business bankruptcies rose 7 pct in January
- Chicago foreclosures soar in 4th quarter
- Retailers Likely to Close More U.S. Stores
- Unexpected Rise in U.S. Jobless Claims
- China’s Jan Imports May Jump by Most Since ‘91
- El-Erian: Stock Retreat to Worsen as Economy Slumps
- Faber: Big Banks Are Offspring of Fed Policy
- Next in Line for a Bailout: Social Security
- Military Spending Unaffected by Recession
- El-Erian: Stock Retreat to Worsen as Economy Slumps
- New Reality Show Debuts: “Job Hunt”
- WGC: Gold Fundamentals Remain Strong
- Budget Seeks $1.9T Tax Rise on Richest, Business
- 2010 Budget Has $6.3T Missing Piece
- Huge Deficits Alter US Politics and Global Power
- Tight Credit + High Taxes = Growth?
- Moody’s Warns on Deluge of Debt
- FHA Defaults Signal New Crush of Foreclosures
- Heists Targeting Truckers on the Rise
- Drop in Blood Donors Linked to Recession
- China Seeks Resources as Car, Home Sales Jump
- 6 More US Banks Fail, Bringing 2010 Tally to 15
- Gold Price to Benefit from Declining Production
- Obama’s 2010 Budget Deficit Soars to Record
- Stimulus Not Creating Jobs as Claimed
- TARP Watchdog: Bailouts Upped Risk of New Crisis
- New Mental Health Mandate for Insurance
- Nursing is No Longer Recession-Proof
- Slump Proves Casinos Not Recession-Proof
Latest News
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Archive
Lloyds plc & Fauquier Banshares
I like Fauquier Banshares (FBSS) below $15, it only has an ADV of 1000 shares so be careful bidding. Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) at $7.25 is a good buy. My target for both is $25-$28 range.
September 17, 2009Downgrading CSTR & Potential Cut of COST
Personally I thought the idea of people paying to use coin counting machines was insane. But I was wrong. They put those Coinstar (CSTR) machines in and the people came. There were lines at the supermarket to use it. I couldn’t believe it. But that was then. The “change” must have run out. I haven’t seen one of those machines used in some time. Coinstar does have other machines and an investment in Red Box, but the easy money days of counting change appear to be over.
Costco (COST) saw decreased sales this quarter and missed their numbers, but the real reason I may downgrade — they are starting a trial at two NYC area stores to accept food stamps. Costco, because it charges a membership fee, is like an oasis in the urban jungle. If they start accepting food stamps, it will make it no different than any other large city retailer, think Target or K-Mart.
Mr. Gioia points to the Costco on Vernon Boulevard in Long Island City, Queens, in his district. First opened in 1996, the store is within walking distance for nearly 30,000 residents of three public housing projects: the Queensbridge, Ravenswood and Astoria Homes. “Why Doesn’t Costco Accept Food Stamps?”New York Times, November 11, 2008.
How could anyone not want to shop with them? One of Costco’s reason for never applying to sell food stamps is the $50 yearly fee. Considering the government uses debit cards for the food stamp program so that recipients aren’t shamed, they will probably cover the cost of the membership.
May 28, 2009Gold
With the advent of commodity based ETFs and their growth in popularity, gold now has the opportunity to be treated in the same manner as a tech stock.
Investment in gold is nearing 50% of all gold consumption, and one third of that is ETFs. The price of gold has been kind to ETFs. And ETFs have been kind to the price of gold. Investors invest in ETFs as the price of gold climbs. With gold showing recent weakness, I believe that we will begin to see investors “profit take” thus forcing ETFs to divest ….. divest …. liquidate ….. cash markets will have to absorb this inventory.
The skew on the puts currently reflects anticipation of increasing implied volatility. If the spot price continues breaking through levels of support look for an increase in implied volatility in gold ETF put options across all months.
March 4, 2009United Bankshares Inc.
Just buy it. UBSI @ $15.32
CEO said forget the TARP funds.
CEO is a West Virginian who just bought more stock than he makes in a year.
Corns and Beans
Long 9 Sep Corn @ 377¼
vs.
Short 4 Sep Beans @ 860¾
MS vs. GS ~ the spread
Long 5 MS @ $20.00
Short 1 GS @ $80.00
Taken off now results in a net of $23.25 in the cash register. Cha-ching.
Fairfax Financial (FFH)
Price Target: $220
Position closed March 5, 2009: $220.00
January 7, 2009Time to Buy
It’s always time to buy something, but what (is it time to buy now)?
Here’s what I like:
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) $37.35 – - 39¢ quarterly dividend
Equitable Resources Inc. (EQT) $32.20 – - 22¢ quarterly dividend
Olin Corp. (OLN) $16.95 – - 20¢ quarterly dividend
And here’s one I love:
BP Plc. (BP) $45.25 – - 84¢ quarterly dividend (this is almost a 7.5% dividend folks)
All have healthy dividends, strong stable balance sheets, and room for growth.
December 30, 2008The Spread
Morgan Stanley: $16.00
Goldman Sachs: $73.00
The spread we bought for a credit of $3.25 is now at $7.00
November 10, 2008The Art of the Spread – MS vs. GS
Long 5 shares of Morgan Stanley(MS) @ $26.25
vs.
Short 1 share of Goldman Sachs(GS) @ $134.50
Net cost: – $3.25
Can’t sell stock? Buy a deep put or sell a deep call for the GS leg.
Upgrades / Downgrades
Coca-Cola (KO) – Sell ($53.39)
Chesapeke Energy (CHK) – Buy ($38.57)
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Buy ($33.57)
Joy Global (JOYG) – Buy ($51.55)
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Sell ($108.00)
Morgan Stanley (MS) – Buy ($22.55)
Fifth Third (FITB) – Buy ($15.96)
I have my own research methods. Don’t ask.
September 19, 2008