Bearish Outlook for Agricultural Chemical Producers
Factors that will effect change and a move towards sustainable agriculture by farmers and increase the pressure on the agricultural chemical sector.
1) Seed cost.
2) Fertilizer cost.
3) Soil …
Recent Commentary
- Bearish Outlook for Agricultural Chemical Producers
- Berkshire Hathaway to Acquire Burlington Northern Santa Fe
- EPS vs. Revenue Explained
- Lemonides Says Dow 15,000, Here We Come
- Richard Bove Needs a New Abacus
- Reading Financial Press Releases – Lesson #1
- Bob Evans (BOBE)
- Credit Card Entitlement
- What are we actually bailing out?
- Maintaining my stance, sell into rallys.
Martin Armstrong
- Behind the Curtain Part II
- The Clash of Two Worlds 2-7-10
- Creating the Floating Exchange Rate System–The Fate of the Dollar 2010 and Beyond 1/11/10
- Behind The Curtain–The Full Monty
- Behind The Curtain–The Full Monty (Part Three)
- Behind The Curtain–The Full Monty (Part Two)
- Behind The Curtain–The Full Monty (Part One)
- The Decline of the West–Has Western Society Come to an End 12!09
- New Habeas 1 of 4
- Prayer for Relief
- Letter to Supreme Court Doc 2
- Complaint Document 3
- Motion for Appointment of Counsel Doc 4 of 4
- The Dow & the Future–Theory & Myth 12-6-09
- Declaration in Support of Motion for Bail 12-08-09
- The Sum of All Fears–A Great Depression 11-26-09
- Announce and Thank-You 11-30-09
- Emergency Martin Armstrong Needs Our Help Ammended With Additional Contacts
- New Strategy and Additional Numbers to Help Marty
- Example of Fax to Send in Martin Armstrong’s Regards 11-29-09
- Habeas Corpus; Proceeding in Forma Paueris
- Program Statment
- Emergency Martin Armstrong Needs Our Help
- Petition for Certiorari to the Third Circuit
- A Forecast For Real Estate
- Capital Flight–The USA Has Lost it’s Stature as the Financial Capital of the World
- GOLD $5000+ 11/11/09
- Habeas Corpus
- Objective vs. Subjective Analysis 11-1-09
- Letter to Judge Keenan 10-26-09
- Is America On The Verge Of Another Bank War? Should We End The Fed or Goldman Sachs?
- Note of Actual Innocence 10-21-09
- Actual Innocence 10-21-09
- S.E.C. vs Princeton Economics Ltd. 10-15-09
- Christiaan Huygens–The Father of Cycle Theory 10-15-09
- The New Yorker article
- Conspiracy Theories Cloaking Reality 10/5/09
- A Three Year Old With a Pocket Calculator Can Figure Out We Are Screwed! 10/1/09
- Deflation or Inflation–Which is More Likely? 9/29/09
- The Public v Private Waves–and Switzerland’s Fate Along With the Rest of Us 92409
- The Public v Private Waves–and Switzerland’s Fate Along With the Rest of Us 92409
- The Collaspe of the Rule of Law–A Prelude to Disaster! 92009
- The DNA of the Global Economy 91709
- The Collaspe of the Rule of Law–A Prelude to Disaster! 92009
- The 8.6 Year Cycle and the Forces of Mother Nature 91509
- Japan and Its Future After the LDP
- Soaking the Poor for the Benifit of the Rich
- Cycle Theory & the Sixth Dimension Part II 9/09
- Cycle Theory 9/09
- M.A.’s Reply to S.E.C.–in Opposition to Initial Decision 8/30/09
Euro Pacific Capital
- Unlocking the Jobs Dilemma
- The Dominos of Default
- Greece – From Hard Money to Fool’s Gold
- Dont Bet on a Recovery
- Will the Pause Refresh?
- Could the U.S. Default on its Debt?
- Paper Hangers
- Ponzi Scheme
- Fear Takes the Wheel
- Euro Trashed?
- Property Values Projected To Fall 12 Percent In 2010
- More Government Equals Fewer Jobs
- Rewards Abroad
- Central Banking Doesn’t Work – Just Ask the Fed!
- The Precarious State of Our Union
- Geronimo!
- Why I Hope Gold Falls to $1,000
- Congress Sacks Samoan Economy
- Reflections across the Pond
- Polands Economy Is No Joke
- A Decade of Zero
- Things Fall Apart in Eurozone
- Contrary Signals Clear Way for Crash
- Contrary Signals Clear Way for Crash
- It’s Not Our Fault
- Annus Horribilis
- A Hell of a Decade
- THE DEBT BOMB
- THE DEBT BOMB
- The Eye of the Storm
- Dropping the Bomb on Health Care
- Bernanke Presses His Luck
- The Eye of the Storm
- As Good As Gold
- Natural Gas: The Forgotten Commodity, But Not By Exxon Mobil
- Natural Gas: The Forgotten Commodity, But Not By Exxon Mobil
- Mission Not Accomplished
- The United States Of Wusses
- The Buck Stops Where?
- The United States Of Wusses
- Mirage in the Desert
- Coal, Copper and Ore: More Than Just Mines
- Coal, Copper and Ore: More Than Just Mines
- Hiding Debt Just a Juggling Trick
- Big Players Get Physical with Gold
- Hiding Debt Just a Juggling Trick
- The Truth Behind China’s Currency Peg
- Country at a Crossroads
- Gold: Next Stop $1,400?
- Job Losses Demystified
News from the Wires
- Oil and Gasoline Prices Begin to Creep Up
- Brazil Strikes Back in Trade War over US Cotton
- Unemployment Insurance Turning into Welfare?
- 43% Have Less than $10K for Retirement
- Can California Declare Bankruptcy?
- Downtown Detroit Turning Back into Farmland
- Gov: Budget Failure Could Cause NY Depression
- Obamacare Sneaking through Back Door
- Japan Exports Surge, Fueling Surplus
- CBO: US Debt to Be Higher than Obama Forecast
- In Senate Deal, Fed Keeps Power over Banks
- FDIC Pushing Pension Funds to Buy Failed Banks
- Icelanders Balk at Bailout Deal, 93.3% Vote No
- Schools’ New Math: the 4-Day Week
- The Rise of Recession Widowers
- Beijing Studies Severing Dollar Peg
- European CBs: IMF’s New Inflation Target “Imprudent”
- Canada Freezes Spending to Erase Deficit
- Greeks Storm Parliament, Shut Down Transport
- Fannie/Freddie Ask Banks to Eat $21B of Sour Loans
- For Same Job, Federal Gov Pay Beats Private Sector
- CBO: Obama Bank Tax Would Hurt Customers Most
- Market Forecast: Confusing
- Fed Prez: Monetary Tightening “A Ways Away”
- China’s Investments in US Up Sharply
- Aussie Trade Def Narrows on Iron Exports to China
- Malaysian CB Increases Interest Rate
- Greek Protesters Occupy Finance Ministry
- German MPs: Greece Should Sell Some Islands
- EU Wants to Grade Its Own Papers
- Sick Day a Thing of the Past?
- Doubt over Control of US Budget Grows
- China Trading US Dollars for US Assets
- UK Pound More Unloved than Even Mugabe’s Dollar
- Britain Grapples with Debt of Greek Proportions
- Greek PM Declares War on Bloated Budget
- Bailout Mutiny Looms with Iceland’s Taxpayer Vote
- The United States of Deferred Maintenance
- The New Industrial Ghost Towns
- Electricity Use Plunges in Recession
- China Overtakes US as Largest Property Inv Market
- Aussies Hike Rates for 4th Time, to 4%
- Canada 4Q Growth Fastest since 2000
- Gold Puts a Shine on Precious Metals Funds
- USG Tracking Banks’ Sovereign Risk Exposures
- Americans’ Reliance on Gov at All-Time High
- Hey Washington! Economy Has Us Very Worried
- LA City Gov Planning 4K Layoffs
- Taxes and Fees Grow for Air Travelers
- Fed Vacancies Clear Path for Obama
Latest News
OIL FUTURES: Crude Oil Trends Down On Stronger Dollar
Crude oil futures remained at their highest level in eight weeks Tuesday, and the front month contract's fifth day in a row above $80 a barrel, though it settled slightly lower as ...US GAS: Futures End Lower On Mild-Weather Forecasts
Natural gas futures ended slightly lower after a day of choppy trading Tuesday as mild temperatures in the eastern U.S. outweighed bargain-buying.Natural Gas Outlook: Storage Needs May Increase Prices
The Henry Hub spot price averaged $5.32 per MMBtu in February, $0.51 per MMBtu lower than the average spot price in January and $0.14 per MMBtu lower than the forecast ...Short-Term Energy Outlook: Look Out For $3 Gasoline This Summer
Average U.S. pump prices likely will exceed $3 per gallon at times during the forthcoming spring and summer driving season. Projected annual average retail diesel fuel prices are $2.96 ...Crude Oil Outlook: Spring Prices Expected Up
WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $76.39 per barrel in February 2010, almost $2 per barrel lower than the prior month’s average and very near the $76 per barrel forecast ...Gasoline & Diesel Prices Hit High For The Year
Gasoline and diesel prices up 4 cents. Spread narrow to minus 10 cents.US GAS: Futures Climb On Bargain-Buying Despite Mild Weather
Natural gas futures rose on bargain-buying Tuesday despite spring-like weather in the eastern and central U.S.OIL FUTURES: Crude Falls Nearly $2 On Dollar Strength
Crude-oil futures fell nearly $2 Tuesday, pressured by a strong dollar
and profit-taking from Monday’s surge to two-month highs.
OIL FUTURES: Oil At 8-Week High On Economic-Growth Prospects
Crude-oil prices closed at an eight-week high Monday, lifted by a more upbeat outlook for the economy.US GAS: Mild Weather Drives Futures Lower
Natural gas futures slipped Monday, pressured by balmy temperatures across most of the eastern U.S.OIL FUTURES: Crude Rises; Buoyed By Economic Optimism
Crude futures are marginally higher Monday, as investors are more optimistic about the economic outlook thanks to recent positive data reports.US GAS: Futures Slide As Market Eyes Milder Weather, Ample Supply
Natural gas futures slid as the market eyes moderating weather forecasts and sufficient levels of natural gas in storage.OIL FUTURES: Oil At 7-Week High On U.S. Employment Report
Crude oil rose to its highest level in seven weeks Friday as the U.S. reported fewer job losses than expected, offering encouragement in the economic recovery.US GAS: Futures End Slightly Higher On Bargain-Buying
Natural gas futures ended slightly higher in thin volume Friday, supported by bargain-buying despite mild-weather forecasts.OIL FUTURES: Crude Oil Rises Above $81/Barrel On US Jobs Data
Crude oil futures rallied Friday to above $81 a barrel after a key job data report from the U.S. showed fewer jobs were lost in February than expected.OIL FUTURES: Crude Drops On Unemployment Concerns, Strong Dollar
Crude oil futures ended lower Thursday, slipping on concerns about high U.S. unemployment and a stronger dollar.US GAS: Futures Tumble On Modest Storage Draw, Mild Weather
Natural gas futures tumbled to a three-month low Thursday, pressured by a U.S. government report showing a modest draw from gas inventories as milder weather kept a lid on prices.Natural Gas Outlook: Warmer Weather Limits Demand, Prices Decline
Warmer weather moved into major population centers this report week, limiting demand related to space heating for much of the country. Prices declined, with the biggest decreases occurring at markets ...Range Fuels Closes on $80 Million Loan Guaranteed By USDA
Loan Guarantee for Company's Soperton, Georgia, Commercial Cellulosic Biofuels PlantOIL FUTURES: Crude Eases Lower As Unemployment Data Looms
Crude futures fell slightly Thursday, as the success of the recent push above $80 a barrel was seen hinging on U.S. unemployment data not due for another day.Sponsors
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Archive
Lloyds plc & Fauquier Banshares
I like Fauquier Banshares (FBSS) below $15, it only has an ADV of 1000 shares so be careful bidding. Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) at $7.25 is a good buy. My target for both is $25-$28 range.
September 17, 2009Downgrading CSTR & Potential Cut of COST
Personally I thought the idea of people paying to use coin counting machines was insane. But I was wrong. They put those Coinstar (CSTR) machines in and the people came. There were lines at the supermarket to use it. I couldn’t believe it. But that was then. The “change” must have run out. I haven’t seen one of those machines used in some time. Coinstar does have other machines and an investment in Red Box, but the easy money days of counting change appear to be over.
Costco (COST) saw decreased sales this quarter and missed their numbers, but the real reason I may downgrade — they are starting a trial at two NYC area stores to accept food stamps. Costco, because it charges a membership fee, is like an oasis in the urban jungle. If they start accepting food stamps, it will make it no different than any other large city retailer, think Target or K-Mart.
Mr. Gioia points to the Costco on Vernon Boulevard in Long Island City, Queens, in his district. First opened in 1996, the store is within walking distance for nearly 30,000 residents of three public housing projects: the Queensbridge, Ravenswood and Astoria Homes. “Why Doesn’t Costco Accept Food Stamps?”New York Times, November 11, 2008.
How could anyone not want to shop with them? One of Costco’s reason for never applying to sell food stamps is the $50 yearly fee. Considering the government uses debit cards for the food stamp program so that recipients aren’t shamed, they will probably cover the cost of the membership.
May 28, 2009Gold
With the advent of commodity based ETFs and their growth in popularity, gold now has the opportunity to be treated in the same manner as a tech stock.
Investment in gold is nearing 50% of all gold consumption, and one third of that is ETFs. The price of gold has been kind to ETFs. And ETFs have been kind to the price of gold. Investors invest in ETFs as the price of gold climbs. With gold showing recent weakness, I believe that we will begin to see investors “profit take” thus forcing ETFs to divest ….. divest …. liquidate ….. cash markets will have to absorb this inventory.
The skew on the puts currently reflects anticipation of increasing implied volatility. If the spot price continues breaking through levels of support look for an increase in implied volatility in gold ETF put options across all months.
March 4, 2009United Bankshares Inc.
Just buy it. UBSI @ $15.32
CEO said forget the TARP funds.
CEO is a West Virginian who just bought more stock than he makes in a year.
Corns and Beans
Long 9 Sep Corn @ 377¼
vs.
Short 4 Sep Beans @ 860¾
MS vs. GS ~ the spread
Long 5 MS @ $20.00
Short 1 GS @ $80.00
Taken off now results in a net of $23.25 in the cash register. Cha-ching.
Fairfax Financial (FFH)
Price Target: $220
Position closed March 5, 2009: $220.00
January 7, 2009Time to Buy
It’s always time to buy something, but what (is it time to buy now)?
Here’s what I like:
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) $37.35 – - 39¢ quarterly dividend
Equitable Resources Inc. (EQT) $32.20 – - 22¢ quarterly dividend
Olin Corp. (OLN) $16.95 – - 20¢ quarterly dividend
And here’s one I love:
BP Plc. (BP) $45.25 – - 84¢ quarterly dividend (this is almost a 7.5% dividend folks)
All have healthy dividends, strong stable balance sheets, and room for growth.
December 30, 2008The Spread
Morgan Stanley: $16.00
Goldman Sachs: $73.00
The spread we bought for a credit of $3.25 is now at $7.00
November 10, 2008The Art of the Spread – MS vs. GS
Long 5 shares of Morgan Stanley(MS) @ $26.25
vs.
Short 1 share of Goldman Sachs(GS) @ $134.50
Net cost: – $3.25
Can’t sell stock? Buy a deep put or sell a deep call for the GS leg.
Upgrades / Downgrades
Coca-Cola (KO) – Sell ($53.39)
Chesapeke Energy (CHK) – Buy ($38.57)
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Buy ($33.57)
Joy Global (JOYG) – Buy ($51.55)
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Sell ($108.00)
Morgan Stanley (MS) – Buy ($22.55)
Fifth Third (FITB) – Buy ($15.96)
I have my own research methods. Don’t ask.
September 19, 2008